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There has been no sign of a global air cargo upswing from the end of November to the beginning of December ahead of the year-end holiday season
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Worldwide air cargo rates are currently 25% below their unusually elevated levels this time last year that averaged US$3.34 per kilo
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Capacity from all the main origin regions, except Asia Pacific and Central and South America, is significantly above levels this time last year
An end-of-year air cargo upswing expected by global airfreight players has eluded the industry in the run-up to the holiday season.
Global air cargo tonnages continued to slide at the end of November until the beginning of December, cancelling out the airfreight industry’s hopes for a last-minute pick-up before the holidays, air cargo market watcher WorldACD said in a statement.
Following weak demand in the normally buoyant early weeks of November, figures recorded from November 28 to December 4 are consistent with the slow progressive slide in air cargo demand throughout the second half of 2022, WorldACD said.
The numbers show an overall drop of 1% in worldwide flown tonnages compared with the previous week, and more or less stable average prices.
The decrease in overall chargeable weight compared with the previous week can be seen for each main origin region, except for North America, which was impacted the week before by the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
However, air cargo tonnages ex-North America have not yet returned to their pre-Thanksgiving levels, WorldACD said.
The industry data provider said that, in this context, average prices remain fairly stable from most origin regions compared with previous weeks.
The exceptions are rates ex-Central & South America, which reflected a more positive trend than prices ex-North America, which have been on a downward trend.
Comparing weeks 47 and 48 with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), tonnages decreased 4% below their combined total in weeks 45 and 46, while average worldwide rates remained stable in a flat capacity environment. These were based on the more than 350,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.
Across that two-week period, outbound tonnages from North America to all regions were down significantly due to Thanksgiving (less 13% to Europe, a 16% drop to Asia, and 13% decline to Central and South America), on a two-week over two-week basis.
Furthermore, notable decreases of 9% each were recorded in Europe to Central & South America as well as Middle East & South Asia to Asia Pacific, and a 7% drop in intra-Asia Pacific. Meanwhile, some regional lanes showed small increases, the highest being from Europe to Asia Pacific, which was up 2%.
Year-on-year perspective
Worldwide rates are currently 25% below their unusually elevated levels this time last year that averaged US$3.34 per kilo, despite the effects of higher fuel surcharges, but they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels, WorldACD said.
Comparing the overall global market with this time last year, chargeable weight in weeks 47 and 48 was down 17% from the equivalent period in 2021, at a slight 2% increase in capacity.
Notably, tonnages ex-Asia Pacific are down 25% from their strong levels this time last year, and Middle East & South Asia origin tonnages are 22% below last year’s levels. But there were also significant year-on-year drops in outbound tonnages, with North America down 19% and Europe declining 9% despite higher capacity.
Capacity from all the main origin regions – with the exception of Asia Pacific, which shrank 11%, and Central & South America, which declined 8% – is significantly above levels this time last year, with Africa and Europe seeing a 10% increase, Middle East & South Asia expanding 6%, and North America gaining 4%.
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