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Global air cargo demand fell 13.6% year-on-year in October, a reflection of headwinds continuing to affect air cargo demand, said the International Air Transport Association
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“The current economic uncertainties will follow into the New Year and need continued close monitoring,” according to IATA director general Willie Walsh
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Capacity was 0.6% below October 2021 but international cargo capacity grew 2.4% from October 2021
Global air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers, fell 13.6% year-on-year in October, a reflection of headwinds continuing to affect demand, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in a statement.
International operations dropped 13.5% for the same period.
Capacity was 0.6% below October 2021. While this was the first year-on-year contraction since April 2022, month-on-month capacity increased by 2.4% in preparation for the year-end peak season.
International cargo capacity grew 2.4% from October 2021.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh said: “Air cargo continues to demonstrate resilience as headwinds persist. Cargo demand in October — while tracking below the exceptional performance of October 2021– saw a 3.5% increase in demand compared to September.
“This indicates that the year-end will still bring a traditional peak-season boost despite economic uncertainties. But as 2022 closes out it appears that the current economic uncertainties will follow into the New Year and need continued close monitoring.”
According to IATA, the following factors are worth noting:
- New export orders, a leading indicator of cargo demand, are shrinking in all markets except China and South Korea, which registered slightly higher new export orders in October.
- Latest global goods trade figures showed a 5.6% expansion in September, a positive sign for the global economy. This is expected to primarily benefit maritime cargo, with a slight boost to air cargo as well.
- The US dollar has seen a sharp appreciation, with the broad real effective exchange rate in September 2022 reaching the highest level since 1986. A strong dollar affects air cargo. As many costs are denominated in dollars, the currency’s appreciation adds another layer of cost on top of high inflation and high jet fuel prices.
- The Consumer Price Index increased slightly in G7 countries in October and remains at a decades’ high level of 7.8%. Inflation in producer (input) prices reduced by 0.5 percentage points to 13.3% in September.
European carriers saw an 18.8% decrease in cargo volumes in October 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. This was also a decline compared to their performance last September. This was worst performance of all regions is attributable to the war in Ukraine, high inflation levels, most notably in Türkiye. It was reported that capacity decreased 5.2% in October 2022 compared to October 2021.
Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 15% year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in October 2022. This region showed better performance compared to September 2022, where it saw a 15.8% decrease in cargo volumes. Middle Eastern carriers were affected by stagnant cargo volumes to/from Europe. However, capacity increased 1% compared to October 2021.
Due to the impact of war in Ukraine and lower levels of trade and manufacturing activity due to Omicron-related restrictions in China, Asia-Pacific airlines saw air cargo volumes decrease by 14.7% in October 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. They also reported a 10.7% month-to-month decline in performance in September 2022 as well as a decrease in capacity by 2.8% compared to 2021.
North American carriers saw an 8.6% cut in cargo volumes in October 2022 year-on-year. This was a decline in performance compared to September (-6.0%). But compared to last year, the region saw improvements with capacity increasing 2.4% from October 2021.
African airlines reported a drop in cargo volumes by 8.3% in October 2022 from the same month last year, a significant decrease in growth recorded from the previous month (0.1%). Capacity was 7.4% below October 2021 levels.
Latin American carriers posted the strongest performance among all the regions. The region reported a decrease in demand of 1.4% in cargo volumes in October 2022year-on-year. This was the first decline in volumes since March 2021. Capacity in October was up 19.2% compared to the same month in 2021. However, it still was a significant decline in performance compared to September 2022 (10.8%).
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