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Supply Chain Outlook 2013: Fearless Forecasts

For this issue we have a set of forecasts by respected SCMAP leaders. The following were lifted from the SCMAP brochure released at the 2013 induction ceremony on February 11, 2013. Except for past president Ike Castillo, the others are 2013 directors or committee chairmen of SCMAP.

Arnel Gamboa, Benby Enterprises: “This year will be a survival of the fittest arena for distributors, LSPs and retailers. We expect business to be better than last year, but the stronger players will most likely buy-out, merge, or steal the business from competitors. With cost still at the center, companies engaged in distribution, logistics services and retail sales will all be playing, with economies of scale to survive this year – bigger business with smaller margins.”

Ike Castillo, Fast Logistics. “A major component of everyone’s playbook should include a review of the business / service model and the review of the corresponding review of the supply chain analytics. On the logistics execution side, everyone should be educated about the impact of cumulative changes in logistics landscape the past few years. These changes are driving everyone, suppliers and customers alike, to shift gears and focus more on the long term than short economic gains. The shift, though, will be slow and painful as the drive for immediate cost saving continues to be part of everyone’s playbook as well.”

Pierre Carlo Curay, XVC Logistics. “The slowdown of Western economies has shifted investment to the high-growth areas in Asia where the Philippines is touted to be at the forefront. There will be more ASEAN intra trading which will dramatically increase the role of logistics providers in the region. Our economy has grown significantly and this is expected to continue this year. There will be more demand for raw materials and finished goods because of Filipinos’ increasing purchasing power; this would require faster, smarter and more adaptable logistics skills and services. The huge growth potential for Mindanao will also increase logistics in the region. There will also be increased demand for agricultural goods and, as such, for advances in cold chain technology and services.”

Manny Onrejas, Fast Logistics. “Principals and 3PLs will continue to look for ways to reduce cost like multiple clients in one roof. Flooding issues will be the driver of where to locate next. Those companies with storage facilities in VisMin would be somewhat comfortable but should continue to look for more synergistic moves. The better way to face this challenge is to collaborate with existing partner/s for long-term strategies.”

Maximo Yap, Oriental & Motolite Marketing Corp.: “The manufacturing sector sees more challenges in terms of competitiveness, most especially those who are geared for exports, due to the strengthening of the Philippine peso and unstable cost of crude. The threat of instability in the Middle East and the new crisis of terrorism in Africa this can bring ill effects not only on the oil supply but most especially on prices. The common strategy will be more on cost competitiveness, lean inventory and efficient logistics services.”

Gus Arguelles, Ateneo Graduate School of Business: “ASEAN is in transition to become the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). This calls for intense preparation not only in terms of infrastructure and government policies but likewise for SCM professionals. There will be a big demand for professionals to manage not only the expected increase in the movement of goods and services between ASEAN countries but also in procurement and manufacturing operations. SCM professionals need therefore to be prepared for this development.”

Address inquiries and comments to Ed Sanchez at tel. 671-8670, fax 671-4793, cell 0918-914-1689, or email Those interested in SCMAP training and other activities are requested to send their e-mail addresses.


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