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Global air cargo demand in 2022, gauged in cargo ton-km (CTKs), declined 8.0% from 2021, with an 8.2% contraction for international operations
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Airlines’ performance softened in December as global demand was 15.3% below 2021 levels (down 15.8% for international operations)
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Global new export orders were at the same level since October
Air cargo activity ended 2022 near the pre-COVID level, but took a significant step back from its 2021 performance, data for global air freight markets released on February 6 by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) showed.
Global full-year demand in 2022, measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTKs), declined 8.0% year on year, with an 8.2% contraction for international operations, said IATA in its latest industry update. Compared with 2019, it was down 1.6% globally and internationally.
Capacity in 2022, measured in available cargo ton-km (ACTKs), was 3.0% above 2021 and up 4.5% for international operations. Compared with the 2019 pre-COVID levels, capacity declined 8.2% but a deeper dip of 9.0% for international operations.
The airlines’ umbrella group said performance softened in December as global demand was 15.3% below 2021 levels (down 15.8% for international operations).
Monthly cargo demand tracked below 2021 levels from March 2022. Global capacity was 2.2% below 2021 levels (down 0.5% for international operations). This was the 10th consecutive monthly contraction compared with 2021 performance.
IATA said air cargo ended 2022 ended with mixed signals:
- Global new export orders, a leading cargo demand indicator, remained at the same level since October. For major economies, new export orders were shrinking except in Germany, the US, and Japan, where they grew.
- Global goods trade shrank 1.5% in November, down from a 3.4% rise in October.
- The G7 countries’ Consumer Price Index showed inflation at 6.8% for December. The 0.6 percentage point drop from November’s 7.4%) was the largest over the year. Inflation in producer (input) prices fell to 12.7% in October, its lowest level so far in 2022.
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“In the face of significant political and economic uncertainties, air cargo performance declined compared with the extraordinary levels of 2021. That brought air cargo demand to 1.6% below 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels,” said IATA director general Willie Walsh.
“The continuing measures by key governments to fight inflation by cooling economies are expected to result in a further decline in cargo volumes in 2023 to -5.6% compared with 2019. It will, however, take time for these measures to bite into cargo rates.”
“So, the good news for air cargo is that average yields and total revenue for 2023 should remain well above what they were pre-pandemic. That should provide some respite in what is likely to be a challenging trading environment in the year ahead,” said Walsh.
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2022 Regional Performance
Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand drop 8.8% in 2022 vs. 2021’s 7.4% fall for international operations) and capacity growth of 0.5% (up 5.8% for international). Compared with pre-COVID 2019, demand was 7.8% down (3.9% drop for international) and capacity slid 17.2% (12.2% for international). In December, Asia-Pacific airlines were the worst of all regions, with demand diving 21.2% y-o-y (down 20.4% for international).
North American carriers reported a 5.1% dip in demand vs. 2021 (down 6.3% for international) and a 4.2% capacity increase (up 4.9% for international). Demand was 13.7% above 2019 pre-COVID levels (up 12.7% for international) and capacity was up 8.2% (5.1% for international). In December, regional airlines saw demand for global and international operations 8.5% y-o-y.
European carriers had the worst year-on-year performance of all regions, with an 11.5% y-o-y demand drop in 2022 with 2021 (down 11.8% for international). Airlines’ capacity rose 0.5% for both global and international. Compared with 2019 (pre-COVID), demand fell 8.7% (down 9.1% for international) and capacity dove 16.5% (down 17.3% for international). In December, airlines in the region posted a 17.4% decrease in demand (down 17.9% for international) vs. 2021.
Middle Eastern carriers saw 2022 demand drop 10.7% for global and international vs. 2021 and an increase in capacity of 4.3% (up 4.5% for international). Compared with 2019, demand was 1.6% below for global and international, and capacity fell 6.3% (a 6.1% dip for international). In December, demand for regional airlines slipped 14.4% for global and international vs. 2021. Capacity increased 2.8% (up 3.0% for international) during the same period.
