Capacity in container shipping is still on the rise, but lately this is more the result of ordering bigger ships than ordering more ships, according to Drewry Maritime Research.
In fact, it said, the number of container ships afloat has decreased in the first half of 2014 and could fall on an annual basis this year, for the first time in at least 20 years, it added.
In its latest report, the market intelligence provider said that while the total capacity of the global fleet continues to increase by about 6 percent a year, this growth “now comes solely from the increase in average ship size, not from having more ships.”
During the 12 months to the end of March 2014, some 192 ships averaging about 2,600 TEUs (20-foot-equivalent units) were scrapped, according to Drewry’s Container Forecaster reports. Demolitions are running at about 55 ships per quarter.
It further noted that about 230 new ships of all sizes are scheduled to be delivered in 2014, or about the same as 55 newbuilds per quarter. In 2015 the number is expected to drop to 180, making the ships leaving and the ships entering the market very close in number.
Drewry said that apart from fewer arrivals, there appears to be another trend: “Of the 230 new ships of 2014, the majority of new vessels will be larger than 5,000 TEUs. Whereas the sector where nearly all demolitions are happening is that of smaller ships of 5,000 TEUs or less capacity.”
In other words, “not only are ships getting bigger (not unexpected), but also both the absolute number and the relative market share of smaller ships are falling,” it said.
These would have implications for ports, shipyards, and ship charterers.
For ports, this means that volume is increasingly concentrated on fewer port calls or less frequent joint services—a development which is linked to the advent of new mega-alliances.
For shipyards, it means that the requirement for more and more vessels, particularly of small and medium-size ships, appears to be changing in favor of the same number of bigger and bigger ships.
For vessel charterers, it is starting to look as if smaller vessels will be harder to find on the charter market, said Drewry.
Photo: Andy Liang
