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World air cargo demand shrank 10.6% year on year in September but stayed near pre-pandemic levels at 3.6% below the September 2019 level
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Capacity was 2.4% more than in September 2021, but still 7.4% y-o-y lower than in September 2019
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IATA cites bearish factors such as the continuing impact of the Ukraine war, labor shortages, lower trade and manufacturing activity in China, and high inflation
September air cargo volumes slipped as global demand softened amid growth contractions in major economies that saw new export orders fall for a third straight month to their lowest level in two years, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported on November 7.
IATA released data for September 2022 showing global air cargo demand, measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTKs), shrank 10.6% year on year in both cargo and international operations, but continued to track near pre-pandemic levels at 3.6% below the September 2019 level.
Capacity was 2.4% above September 2021 levels (5.0% greater for international operations), but still 7.4% y-o-y lower than in September 2019 (down 8.1% for international operations).
IATA said several factors in the operating environment during the month should be noted.
- The global Purchasing Managers Index for new export orders fell for a third month in a row to its lowest level in two years.
- The latest global goods trade figures showed a 5.2% expansion in August, a positive sign for the global economy. This is expected to primarily benefit maritime cargo, with a slight boost to air cargo as well.
- Oil prices remained stable in September and the jet fuel crack spread fell from a peak in June.
- The Consumer Price Index stabilized in G7 countries in September, but at a decades-high level of 7.7%. Inflation in producer input prices slowed to 13.7% in August.
IATA director general Willie Walsh said that while air cargo activity continues to track near 2019 levels, volumes remain below 2021’s exceptional performance as the industry faces some headwinds.
“At the consumer level, with travel restrictions lifting post-pandemic, people are likely to spend more on vacation travel and less on e-commerce. And at the macro-level, increasing recession warnings are likely to have a negative impact on the global flows of goods and services, balanced slightly by a stabilization of oil prices,” Walsh said.
“Against this backdrop, air cargo is bearing up well. And a strategic slowdown in capacity growth from 6.3% in August to 2.4% in September demonstrates the flexibility the industry has in adjusting to economic developments.”
IATA said Asia Pacific remained the top world air cargo market with a 32.6% share of the market, followed by North America with 27.6%, Europe 22.8%, the Middle East 15.1%.
September regional performance
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their September air cargo volumes decrease 10.7% year on year in 2022 and 8.3% month on month amid the continuing impact of the Ukraine war, labor shortages, and lower trade and manufacturing activity due to COVID-related restrictions in China. Available capacity in the region increased 2.8% y-o-y.
North American carriers posted a 6.0% decline in cargo volumes in September 2022 compared with the same month in 2021 and a 3.4% contraction from August. Capacity grew 4.6% y-o-y.
European carriers’ cargo volumes dropped 15.6% in September 2022 compared with the same month in 2021 but was on par with August’s 15.1% fall. The decline is attributable to the war in Ukraine, labor shortages and high inflation, most notably in Turkey. Capacity grew 0.2% y-o-y.
Middle Eastern carriers’ cargo volumes fell 15.8% y-o-y in September 2022, the worst performance of all regions and a significant decline as against the 11.3% slide in August. Stagnant cargo volumes to/from Europe impacted the region’s performance. Capacity fell 2.8%.
Latin American carriers reported a 10.8% y-o-y rise in cargo volumes in September 2022, the strongest performance of all regions, as its airlines showed optimism by introducing new services and capacity and, in some cases, invested in additional freighters in the coming months. Capacity in September rose 18.4% y-o-y.
African airlines’ cargo volumes grew 0.1% y-o-y in September 2022 but fell 1% m-o-m. Capacity was 4.1% below September 2021 levels.
