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Global air cargo demand rose 2.9% year on year in February as the sector stayed on its growth trajectory while manufacturers ramped up activity following the easing of pandemic restrictions, IATA announced
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Passenger traffic rebounded 115.8% in the same month, as a waning Omicron outbreak led governments to ease travel restrictions that had been put in place since early 2020, when the COVID-19 contagion spread worldwide
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Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, says the picture may be different in March, when the economic impacts of the Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia take hold
Global air cargo continues to grow, with demand up 2.9% year on year in February despite a challenging operating backdrop. Passenger traffic bounced 115.8% y-o-y as travellers welcomed the easing of travel restrictions amid waning Omicron infections outside of Asia.
International cargo players saw demand grow 2.5%, the International Air Transport Association reported on April 6, citing several factors that benefitted air cargo in February. Carriers measure freight demand in cargo ton-kilometers and passenger traffic in revenue passenger-kms.
Total cargo traffic market share by region in terms of CTK is: Asia-Pacific 32.4%, Europe 22.9%, North America 27.2%, Middle East 13.4%, Latin America 2.2%, and Africa 1.9%.
On the demand side, manufacturing activity ramped up after the early February Lunar New Year holiday, said IATA, a group of some 290 airlines worldwide. It said capacity was positively influenced by the general and progressive easing of COVID travel protocols and fewer flight cancellations and winter weather operational disruptions.
“Demand for air cargo continued to expand despite growing challenges in the trading environment. That is not likely to be the case in March as the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine take hold,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.
“Sanction-related shifts in manufacturing and economic activity, rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty will take their toll on air cargo’s performance,” Walsh warned.
Adjusting the comparison for the impact of the early Lunar New Year by averaging January and February’s performance, demand increased 2.7% y-o-y. Yet, while cargo volumes rose, year-on-year growth slowed from 8.7% in December.
Capacity grew 12.5% from a year ago, with that of international operations up 8.9%. As against pre-COVID levels, capacity was constrained at 5.6% below that of February 2019.
IATA said factors in the operating environment included the 6.3% general consumer price inflation in February in Group of Seven countries, the peak since late 1982. While inflation curbs purchasing power, it is balanced against higher levels coming out of the pandemic.
Other factors included the Purchasing Managers’ Index indicator tracking global new export orders falling to 48.2 in March, the lowest since July, and China and Hong Kong’s zero-COVID policy continuing to create supply chain disruptions due to flight cancellations.
READ: Supply chain disruptions halve November air cargo growth – IATA
IATA said the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 had a limited effect globally on airlines’ performance that month. But, in March, the negative impacts of the war and related sanctions, particularly higher energy costs and reduced trade, will be felt.
Passenger traffic more than doubled in February from year-ago levels, beating the 83.1% y-o-y gains in January. “The recovery in air travel is gathering steam as governments in many parts of the world lift travel restrictions,” said Walsh.
“States that persist in attempting to lock out the disease, rather than managing it as we do with other diseases, risk missing out on the enormous economic and societal benefits that a restoration of international connectivity will bring.”
Despite the total traffic rising 115.9%, it was down 45.5% from February 2019, IATA said.
Domestic traffic shot up 60.7% from a year ago, building on a 42.6% increase in January 2022 compared with January 2021. Markets tracked by IATA varied widely. Domestic traffic in February was 21.8% below the volumes in February 2019.
International RPKs rose 256.8% in February from a year ago, eclipsing a 165.5% y-o-y increase in January against a year earlier.
Asia-Pacific airlines had a 144.4% y-o-y rise in February traffic, up somewhat over the 125.8% gain registered in January 2022. Capacity rose 60.8% and the load factor was up 16.1 percentage points to 47.0%, the lowest among regions.
European carriers saw their February traffic rise 380.6% versus February 2021, improving over the 224.3% y-o-y increase in January 2022. Capacity rose 174.8%, and load factor climbed 30.3 percentage points to 70.9%.
North American carriers registered a 236.7% y-o-y traffic rise in February, significantly higher than the 149.0% rise in January 2022 y-o-y. Capacity rose 91.7%, and load factor climbed 27.4 percentage points to 63.6%.
“As the long-awaited recovery in air travel accelerates, it is important that our infrastructure providers are prepared for a huge increase in passenger numbers in the coming months,” said Walsh. “The peak Northern summer travel season will be critical for jobs throughout the travel and tourism value chain. Now is the time to prepare.”
