Passenger numbers are expected to reach 7.3 billion by 2034, representing a 4.1 percent average annual growth in demand that will result in more than double the 3.3-billion passengers expected to travel this year, said the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in its first 20-year passenger growth forecast.
China is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest passenger market (in terms of traffic to, from, and within) by 2030. Both markets, however, are expected to remain the largest by a wide margin.
In 2034 China will account for some 1.3 billion passengers, 856 million more than 2014 with an average annual growth rate of 5.5 percent. The U.S. is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.2 percent that will see 1.2 billion passengers by 2034 (559 million more than 2014).
The report, the first from the new IATA Passenger Forecasting service, analyzes passenger flows across 4,000 country pairs for the next 20 years, forecasting passenger numbers by way of three key demand drivers: living standards, population and demographics, and price and availability.
By 2034 the five fastest-increasing markets in terms of additional passengers per year will be China, the U.S., India (266 million), Indonesia (183 million), and Brazil (170 million).
Eight of the 10 fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa with Central African Republic, Madagascar, Tanzania, Burundi, and Kuwait making up the five fastest-growing markets.
In terms of country pairs, Asian and South American destinations will see the fastest growth, reflecting economic and demographic growth in those markets. Intra-Pakistan, Kuwait-Thailand, United Arab Emirates (UAE)-Ethiopia, Colombia-Ecuador and intra-Honduras travel will all grow by at least 9.5 percent on average for the next 20 years, while Indonesia-East Timor will be the fastest growing pair of all, at 14.9 percent.
10 biggest markets
Analyzing the 10 largest air passenger markets defined by traffic to, from and within for the period 2014-2034, the report said the United States will remain the largest air passenger market until around 2030, when it will drop to number 2, behind China. Cumulatively over the next 20 years the U.S. will carry 18.3 billion more passengers and China 16.9 billion.
Currently the ninth largest market, India will see a total of 367 million passengers by 2034, an extra 266 million annual passengers compared to today. It will overtake the United Kingdom to become the third largest market around 2031.
Reflecting a declining and aging population, Japanese air passenger numbers will grow just 1.3 percent per year and decline from the fourth largest market in 2014 to the ninth largest by 2033.
Germany and Spain will decline from fifth and sixth position in 2014 to be the eighth and seventh largest markets respectively. France will fall from seventh to 10th, while Italy will fall out of the top 10 altogether in around 2019.
Brazil will increase passenger numbers by 170 million and rise from 10th to fifth. Its total market will be 272 million passengers.
Indonesia will enter the top 10 around 2020 and attain sixth place by 2029. By 2034 it will be a market of 270 million passengers.
Regional growth areas
On a regional basis, Asia-Pacific will see an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers by 2034, for an overall market size of 2.9 billion. In relative terms, it will increase its size compared to other regions to 42 percent of global passenger traffic, and its annual average growth rate, 4.9 percent, will be the joint-highest with the Middle East.
The North American region will grow by 3.3 percent annually and in 2034 will carry a total of 1.4 billion passengers, an additional 649 million passengers a year.
Europe will have the slowest growth rate, 2.7 percent, but will still cater for an additional 591 million passengers a year. The total market will be 1.4 billion passengers.
Latin American markets will grow by 4.7 percent, serving a total of 605 million passengers, an additional 363 million passengers annually compared to today.
The Middle East will grow strongly (4.9 percent) and will see an extra 237 million passengers a year on routes to, from and within the region by 2034. The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia will all enjoy strong growth of 5.6 percent, 4.8 percent, and 4.6 percent respectively. The total market size will be 383 million passengers.
Africa will grow by 4.7 percent. By 2034 it will see an extra 177 million passengers a year for a total market of 294 million passengers.
HKIA cargo business still strong
As this developed, Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) reported growth in cargo volume of 5.2 percent year-on-year to 364,000 tonnes in September.
The growth in throughput last month was driven mainly by transshipments, which were up 18 percent from a year ago. During the month, cargo throughput to and from Southeast Asia and North America increased most significantly compared to other key regions.
For the first three quarters of 2014, HKIA handled a total of 3.2 million tonnes of cargo, representing a year-on-year gain of 6.7 percent. On a 12-month rolling basis, cargo volume rose 6.1 percent to 4.3 million tonnes.
Photo: Netaholic13
