March is “a month like no other in aviation history” as the COVID-19 pandemic upends the sector in a way never seen before, according to a new analysis from WorldACD.
Analyzing March data received for over 1,500 individual markets, WorldACD said the month is “like no other in aviation history” and that “roller-coaster does not even begin to describe what the air cargo world has experienced in March.”
Data for the month showed freight capacity fell by 28% in just two weeks’ time, noted WorldACD, a global market intelligence service provider on the air cargo sector. Cargo carried on freighters was 3.5% higher in the second half (H2) than in the first (H1), but freight carried on passenger aircraft was halved, causing the total freight carried to drop by 22% from H1 to H2. Cargo carried from Africa and the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) fell by more than 30% in two weeks’ time, while Asia Pacific’s fell by less than 10%.
Comparing the last week of March with the first, cargo carried in the last week was 31% lower worldwide than in the first week. Airlines from the Middle East were hardest hit with a volume decrease of 49%. Cargo capacity on passenger aircraft virtually disappeared in the MESA region (-92%). Asia-Pacific airlines dropped least (-10%). Airlines from North America lost 53% in European markets, but airlines from Europe lost only 28% in North American markets.
The volume of high-tech products transported in the last week of March was higher than in the first week. Fish & seafood, fruits & vegetables and flowers were hardest hit, with drops between the first and the last week of 41%, 53% and 58% respectively.
Comparing March with the months of January and February combined, the former recorded a decrease in chargeable weight of 17.7% year-on-year, after a drop of 2.7% was reported for the period January/February. The decline in March 2020 comes in spite of the first week of the month being the best week of the year so far.
Asia-Pacific (-12%) and the Americas (-17%) fell least, while Africa and MESA were hardest hit (-28% and -32%, respectively). A small increase in freighter capacity (+2%) was more than offset by the sudden lack of cargo capacity in passenger aircraft (-39%), causing yields to go up in most regions, most visibly for cargo originating in Asia-Pacific.
In the Asia-Pacific region, unit prices in US dollars increased year-on-year by more than one-third (from China by even two-thirds, getting up to an average of US$3.58 /kg). In terms of revenues, the market from China to destinations in Asia-Pacific stood out with an increase of 91%.
Meanwhile, comparing February and March, freighter capacity increased by 29%, while cargo capacity on passenger aircraft dropped by the same percentage. For airlines flying freighters only, they carried 42% more cargo than in February, whilst airlines operating only passenger aircraft lost 22%. The larger group of airlines operating both passenger aircraft and freighters did not suffer a material change in volume.
“Not surprisingly, the cargo-only airlines improved their market share considerably, whilst recording a whopping 81% growth in USD-revenues,” said WorldACD.
For the World’s Top 20 forwarders, the Top 10 as a group increased volumes by 3%, though with individual performance ranging between -9% and +16%.
Individual performances in Tier 2 (the numbers 11-20 lost 2% as a group) were much more divergent, ranging from -40% to +117 %. The Top 10 slightly increased their share as they laid their hands on scarce capacity against a somewhat higher increase of charges than the increase recorded for Tier 2.
Photo by Iwan Shimko on Unsplash
