PH economy beats forecast, grows 5.6% in 2021

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  • The economy grew 7.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021, resulting in a 5.6% full-year growth in 2021
  • The 2021 GDP was a rebound from the historic 9.6% contraction in 2020 and higher than the government’s revised forecast of 5% to 5.5% growth for 2021
  • The government forecasts a 7% to 9% full-year GDP growth in 2022

The Philippine economy grew 7.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021 as COVID-19 cases fell and more businesses opened at full capacity, pushing full-year 2021 growth to 5.6%, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.

The full-year gross domestic product was a rebound from the historic contraction of 9.6% in 2020 that was due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is also higher than the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s (DBCC) revised forecast of 5% to 5.5% growth for 2021. GDP growth last year was, however, slower than the 6.1% growth recorded in pre-pandemic 2019.

The fourth quarter GDP growth was also higher than the third quarter’s revised growth of 6.9% from 7.1%, and faster than the 8.3% contraction recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.

COVID-19 cases saw a decline in the fourth quarter of 2021, allowing for more business to open at full capacity.

For full-year 2021, the industry and services sectors grew 8.2% and 5.3%, respectively, representing a strong rebound from the contraction experienced in 2020. The agriculture sector recorded a slight decline of 0.3%, brought about by continued challenges such as the African Swine Fever and typhoons that affected agricultural production.

On the expenditure side, private consumption grew by 4.2%, a stark reversal from 2020’s deficit of 7.9% while government expenditure also expanded by 7%.

External trade recovered at a faster pace in 2021 with exports growing at 7.8% from a 16.3% decline in 2020, and imports improving 12.9% from a 21.6% drop in 2020.

Investments likewise grew 19% in 2021, rebounding from a 34.4% decline in 2020, supported by a 37.4% improvement in public construction.

With the 2021 GDP growth, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua in a statement said “the stage is now set for growth to accelerate in 2022.”

The DBCC forecasts a 7% to 9% full-year GDP growth in 2022.