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Global express market to grow at CAGR of 7.5% in 2020-2024

  • Global express & small parcels market will expand by a compound annual growth rate of 7.5% between 2020 and 2024, driven by e-commerce growth
  • The market is set to reach a total value of nearly US$600 billion in 2024
  • The international express market is expected to grow at a 2020-2024 CAGR of 6.8%
  • Asia-Pacific domestic express to sustain high CAGR of 11.1% in 2020-2024

The global express and small parcels market is expected to grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5% for 2020-2024, with the rapid growth in e-commerce driving growth.

The market will be worth EUR375.2 billion this year and is set to reach a total value of EUR501.2 billion (US$598.6 billion) in 2024, according to a new Transport Intelligence (Ti) forecast for the post-COVID market.

Unlike other markets and sectors, the global express market has bucked the severe downtrend due to the initial COVID-19 lockdowns to record its second highest growth rate since 2010 this year.

In fact, in many locations, 2020 has been a bumper year for express market growth as the COVID-19 pandemic pushed shoppers online and shippers towards air express capacity to keep goods moving, said Ti. It also forecasts the following growth trends for 2020-2024:

  • The domestic express market is expected to grow fastest, by a CAGR of 7.7% from 2020 to 2024
  • The international express market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.8%.
  • The Asia-Pacific domestic express is seen to sustain a high CAGR of 11.1%
  • Europe’s express market is set to grow faster than pre-COVID expectations to 2024, with a CAGR of 5.4%
  • North America’s express market is set for a CAGR of 5.4%, slightly down on pre-COVID expectations

Andy Ralls, a quantitative analyst at Ti, confirmed that the pandemic has accelerated the growth trend of both the domestic and international express markets.

“Post-lockdown, online retail has continued to perform extremely well, indicating that medium term prospects for B2C shipments are likely to be very strong. Time-definite shipments moved by the integrators soared through Q3, due to a lack of global air freight capacity, a sharp rebound in economic activity and strong demand for cross-border e-commerce products.”

A recovery in trade volumes should provide further growth for the international sector in the years ahead, he said.

In 2020, the global domestic market will expand by 9.7% as lockdown measures pushed shoppers to online channels for a range of goods, particularly as non-essential retail was curtailed in many consumer markets.

The rapid growth in cross-border e-commerce in the third quarter, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, has been a driving force for international growth, with the expansion going beyond the strong domestic e-commerce growth rates.

Lockdown measures followed by peak season spurred a boost in cross-border e-commerce, said Ti. DHL reported a nearly 40% year-over-year revenue growth in its international B2C e-commerce segment. Retail and fashion are the leading verticals, as they recorded a 44% and 27% year-over-year revenue growth, respectively, for the first eight months of 2020.

“The expectation is for these cross-border spending habits to remain embedded after the pandemic and for them to sustain faster international express growth in the post-Covid market, alongside the return of other international express flows as manufacturing returns to normality,” said the report.

Photo by Maarten van den Heuvel on Unsplash



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