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Vaccine rollout will happen in two waves, initially by overland transport and airfreight, followed by all other modes of transport
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For airfreight, up to 60,000 tonnes of vaccines equivalent to 900 dedicated freight flights are expected to be transported
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Overland transport is important as it is cost efficient, can handle flexible volumes, and one can easily monitor and control temperature via the use of dedicated vehicles
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Ocean freight can support the movement when the vaccine becomes more stable at -20°C and specifically between 2°C and 8°C
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The largest vaccine international distribution will originate from Europe and India, with the largest demand in Africa and Asia
Following the development of COVID-19 vaccines in record time, a handful of vaccines are expected to be approved by mid-2021, and the first batches are seen to be transported by air, followed by all other modes of transport, according to Maersk’s global head of pharma & healthcare vertical.
In an opinion piece, Maersk’s Hristo Petkov said that as part of the quality standards to ensure vaccine integrity, temperature requirements remain a key factor in distribution logistics.
“We still see the initial need for Pfizer/BioNTech to transport their vaccine at -80°C and Moderna at -20°C. However, we see that further vaccines released in 2021 will be more stable and require temperature control between 2°C and 8°C,” he said.
Petkov expects two waves of approach to the vaccine distribution plan. Initially, the first batches are to be transported by air, followed by all other modes of transport in the second wave.
Vaccine rollout will initially happen by overland transport and airfreight as speed to the market is the priority. Overland transport is important as this transportation mode is cost efficient, can handle flexible volumes, and one can easily monitor and control temperature via the use of dedicated vehicles.
“Once the security risk is covered, it can be the perfect distribution mode for the Covid-19 vaccines,” said Petkov of overland transport.
Airfreight expectations, challenges
“When the industry evaluates the air freight expectations, there are predicted up to 60,000 tones equivalent to 900 dedicated freight flights. This is a best-case scenario, where dry ice restrictions are maximized by best ventilation capabilities,” he continued.
Dedicated aircraft are likely to be seen later in the distribution waves, as the initial volumes, as they are being produced, will preferably be shipped on passenger flights.
Vaccine distribution at destinations will be met with its own challenges, such as expected shortages for storage and administering hold-up at the last mile.
Petkov believes utilizing ocean temperature containers can serve to create sufficient temperature control storage at destination.
“Ocean freight can support the movement when the vaccine becomes more stable at -20°C and specifically between 2°C and 8°C,” he said
Even though global freighter capacity (dedicated planes for cargo) has increased and is currently 20% higher than 2019 levels, overall air freight capacity globally continues to be critical and is at approximately 30% below the levels registered for same period in 2019 therefore confirming the continued impact on airfreight.
Air travel restrictions and airfreight market disruptions remain and continue to interrupt and delay the supply of essential health products to many countries. There has been rate increases by as much as 100% to 500% per charter that cannot be afforded by all.
Key production centers
Petkov said the largest vaccine international distribution will originate from Europe and India, where most production facilities are found, with the largest demand in Africa and Asia.
Most of the European distribution will happen from intra-Europe via trucks due to the short distances and the fact that the EU has signed deals with most vaccine producers.
India will be one of the biggest global producers with the Serum Institute of India leading the way with the Astra Zeneca and Novavax vaccine and subsequent domestic distribution in India.
The third largest production area is concentrated on the east coast of US, with distribution mostly expected in US, predominantly by road but also air transport.
Supply to South America will come from Europe and Asia, supply to Africa will come from Europe and India, while Southeast Asia will self-produce but also receive supply from US, Europe and India.
Petkov said the infrastructure, administration and the accessories that will be in place when the vaccine arrives will impact the distribution of the vaccine. In particular, important are:
- Storage refrigerators that will stock the vaccines once they arrive at the destination distribution or administration site. The World Health Organization estimates that there is huge risk of losing vaccines due to cold chain failures and non-functional freezers, as per previous experience. Losing millions of doses of COVID-19 vaccines could be disastrous for getting a handle on the pandemic. That is where ocean reefers can support in certain geographies, Petkov said.
- Keeping track of who got vaccinated, the vaccine they received and ensuring both and subsequent doses are from the same company.
- The accessories needed to administer the vaccine, including diagnostics and therapeutics, will be six times the volume of the vaccine. These will have to find capacity initially on airplanes but would widely move on trucks and ocean. The accessories are face masks, gloves, gowns, face shields, glasses, needles, syringes, disinfectants, plasters, waste bags and others.
Outlook
It is still unknown for how long one would be protected after receiving a Covid-19 vaccine. Depending on the Covid-19 vaccine efficiency, Petkov sees three scenarios:
- Permanent immunization – administering of vaccines will lead to lifelong immunization, expecting the wave of demand to wind down by 2023
- Long-lived immunization – administering of vaccines will lead to several years of immunity against Covid-19, in which case a limited demand for Covid-19 vaccines beyond 2023 will be seen
- Short-lived immunization – administering of vaccines will lead to short term (more or less a year) immunity against Covid-19, in which case demand for Covid-19 vaccines will go beyond 2023