The airport industry is anticipating a 59.6% reduction in passenger volume in 2020 against the pre-COVID-19 forecast for this year and a 58.4% reduction in passengers as compared to 2019. This equates to a reduction in passengers of 5.6 billion for the year.
The forecast, made by Airports Council International World (ACI) in a new economic impact analysis, further states that the airport industry is anticipating a 60% reduction in revenues as compared to the projected baseline pre-COVID.
Revenues declined by US$10.3 billion and $39.5 billion in the first and second quarters, respectively, compared to the projected baseline. The revenue shortfall is expected to reach $33.4 billion and $21.1 billion in the third and fourth quarters of 2020, respectively.
This means an unprecedented $104.5 billion reduction in revenue for 2020 which heavily impacts the airport business, ACI said.
High uncertainty also surrounds the industry’s recovery, as ACI predicts that by December, monthly traffic may reach between 27% and 60% of the projected baseline for December 2020. The most likely baseline scenario suggests passenger traffic volumes to reach 56%, ACI found.
Globally, passenger traffic volumes are forecast to not recover to 2019 levels before 2023 and markets that have significant international traffic will not recover until 2024.
“Airports are key drivers of economic development but, without any support from governments and with $104 billion in losses because of the devastating impact of the pandemic on aviation, it is now the time to come together to support recovery,” ACI World director general Luis Felipe de Oliveira said. “Aviation will be central to the global economic recovery, delivering connectivity, trade, tourism, jobs, prosperity and growth.
“Beyond the immediate and apparent damages, the global economy has been hit hard by the loss of the benefits arising from air transportation activity. Indeed, according to the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), as of 2018, aviation supports 65.5 million jobs worldwide and enables $2.7 trillion in global GDP.
“ACI World has also called on governments to follow a robust and consistent protocol for testing which should be implemented only when necessary and as an alternative to broad-brush requirements for quarantine.
READ: ACI: effective testing program better than blanket quarantine
“Unnecessary quarantine measures are harmful to passenger confidence so harmonized measures and a risk based approach that relies on scientific evidences will help to restore the traveller confidence and support the economy recovery of the aviation ecosystem,” de Oliveira said.
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