In the next 20 years (2016-2035), passenger traffic will grow at an average 4.5% a year, driving a need for over 33,000 new aircraft above 100 seats (32,425 passenger and 645 freighters greater than 10 tonnes) worth US$5.2 trillion, according to Airbus’ Global Market Forecast.
By 2035, the world’s aircraft fleet will have doubled from today’s 19,500 aircraft to almost 40,000, the forecast said. Some 13,000 passenger and freighter aircraft will be replaced with more fuel efficient types.
Urbanization and increased wealth in emerging economies particularly in Asia is powering air traffic growth, the forecast added. With a combined population of over six billion people, these economies will grow at 5.6% per year and the propensity to travel will triple to 75% of its population. Within 10 years, China’s domestic air traffic will become the world’s largest. In economies like Western Europe or North America, air traffic growth will be 3.7%%.
While GDP remains a key driver in traffic growth, the forecast sees private consumption (a component of GDP) becoming a more significant economic variable on some important flows including domestic China and domestic India. Middle classes in emerging markets will double to 3.5 billion people by 2035.
Globally, by 2035, 62% of world population will be city dwellers and the number of aviation mega cities will rise from 55 to 93 by 2035. These centers of wealth creation will account for 35% of world GDP. In 20 years the number of daily long-haul passengers travelling to, from, or via aviation mega cities, will more than double to 2.5 million.
Airbus’ global services business which today spans six customer support centers, and 14 training centers is set to expand further as the next 20 years sees a requirement for some one million pilots and engineers (560,000 new pilots, 540,000 new engineers) to fly the and maintain the new aircraft.
“While established European and North American markets continue to grow, Asia-Pacific is the engine powering growth in the next 20 years. China will soon be the world’s biggest aviation market and together with emerging economies, further population concentration, and wealth creation, together these will help to fuel strong air traffic growth,” said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers. “We are ramping up production to meet market demand for our leading aircraft products and we will also ramp up our customer service offerings to meet the increasing demands of air transportation.”
In the widebody market, Airbus forecasts a trend towards higher capacity aircraft and forecasts a requirement for over 9,500 widebody passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at some US$2.8 trillion. This represents 29% of all new aircraft deliveries and 54% by value. Most widebody deliveries (46%) will be in the Asia Pacific region. In this segment, Airbus’ A330, A330neo, A350 XWB and the A380 offer the most comprehensive widebody product range between 200 and above 600 seats
In the single aisle market, where the A320 Family and the latest generation A320neo Family are firmly established as the global market leaders, Airbus forecasts a need for over 23,500 new aircraft worth US$2.4 trillion. This represents 71% of all new units. Asia Pacific will take 39% of these deliveries.
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