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Bright Prospects

This will sound like a continuation of last issue’s discussion on ‘Philippines rising’ which was published in a recent issue of Supply Chain Asia magazine.

 

Recent articles in local dailies echo the brighter economic picture described in Supply Chain Asia.

 

Here are some examples from local dailies.

 

  • “Manufacturing ‘renaissance’ in PH seen”, Phil. Daily Inquirer, October 1, 2012
  • “Growth forecast raised … as ADB cuts estimates for other economies”, BusinessWorld, October 4, 2012
  • “Growth prospects take stocks to new heights”, Phil. Daily Inquirer, October 5, 2012
  • “Forex reserves rise to $81.8 B”, Phil. Daily Inquirer, October 6, 2012
  • “Inflation eases to 3.6% in September”, Phil. Daily Inquirer, October 6, 2012

 

Each news item above is either the headline of the business section or a leading story of each newspaper. Each story is also carried in the other newspapers, including Phil. Star.

 

The story on manufacturing renaissance came from German financial giant Deutsche Bank. It said that the growth appears to be coming in the export sector, and that the rebound has been happening for at least two years.

 

We can all recall the departure of manufacturing facilities in the first decade of the century. The closedown of local factories was a result of optimization by multinational companies of their manufacturing and distribution network. Vivid examples were Colgate Palmolive, which closed down its factory on JP Rizal, Makati, and AB Food (Ovaltine). Likewise Unilever, although Unilever stuck with the Philippines for its deodorant factory.

 

Menufacturing was transferred to Thailand and other South East Asian countries. However a steep rise in Thai and Chinese wages is now favoring a return to the Philippines.

 

The ADB monitors 45 countries, and of these, forecasts for 24 countries were trimmed, 10 unchanged and 11 raised. The Philippines is one of the 11. The GDP growth forecast was raised from 4.8% to 5.5% this year.

 

Another indicator of good economic prospects is the stocks index, which surged to a new high of 5,443.74. Also the country’s foreign exchange reserves increased to a new all time high of P81.88 billion.

 

For sure, prospects look bright. And at this time of the year, consumer spending always rises with the Christmas season.

 

As always the Christmas spending will place short-term skewed logistics requirements. For next year there is the election spending which will increase the logistical requirements next year. For the longer term, the economic indicators mentioned above and in the last issue will be the basis of the need to upgrade logistics capacities.

 

The sad part is that infrastructure is lagging behind.

 

Year End Activities

SCMAP activities for the rest of the year include:

 

  • October GMM, Oct. 18
  • Board meeting, Nov, 2
  • Seminar Strategic Procurement, Nov. 16
  • November GNN and Election. Nov. 22
  • Christmas Fellowship, Dec. 5

 

Address inquiries and comments to Ed Sanchez at tel. 671-8670, fax 671-4793, cell 0918-914-1689, or email scmap.org@gmail.com. Those interested in DMAP training and other activities are requested to send their e-mail addresses.

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