All Vietnamese freight modes are forecast to remain healthy in 2015, with the ports sector once again expected to see strong annual growth in terms of tonnage handled, according to BMI International.
In the consultancy’s new “Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015,” it said it expects to see annual growth across the freight modes to remain healthy with road freight being the outperformer in year-on-year growth. Both rail and air freight are set to register the same level of growth in 2015 of 3.4%, while the Vietnamese ports sector will once again see strong annual growth in tonnage handled.
Tonnage at the port of Ho Chi Minh City this year is seen to grow 7.62%, whereas tonnage at the port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 6.5%, as the growing national economy is expected to make a positive impact on the freight sector over the short term at least.
For the other transport modes, road freight is expected to grow by 6% to 859.3 million tonnes, while rail freight tonnage is set to increase by 3.4% to 6.96 million tonnes. As for air freight, tonnage is forecast to rise by 3.4% to 195,640 tonnes.
BMI sees total trade for Vietnam rising by a strong 6.65% in 2015. However, the report cites potential risks to its forecast. “In addition to the fragile banking sector, which is heavily burdened by the high level of non-performing loans, the health of Vietnam’s external position has been a concern among investors and multinational companies alike. Indeed, the country has one of the highest external debts as a share of GDP among its regional peers, with the ratio at an estimated 37.6% in 2013.”
Thailand’s port infrastructure support
In the same way, BMI expects healthy growth across Thailand’s maritime shipping sector in 2015. “While challenges from the volatile political situation—following the establishment of a military government in May 2014—persist, the government has introduced a range of measures which should help boost the economy and reassure investors. Externally, the market for Thai exports is looking stronger, and continued investment into the maritime facilities will see growth continue over the longer term.”
In its new report titled “Thailand Shipping Report Q2 2015,” the research service provider predicts the real value of foreign trade to grow by 4% in 2015, a strong rebound from a 2.4% contraction the year before. Imports will be up by 4.4%, while exports will grow by 4.5%.
BMI forecasts gross tonnage at Laem Chabang, the country’s largest port, to rise by 6% to 76.55 million tonnes in 2015, and to have an average growth of 6% a year over the medium term until 2019.
Box handling at the same port will rise 4.9% to 6.9 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2015, and will grow by an average of 5.8% over the medium term.
At the port of Bangkok, tonnage will grow by 4.1% in 2015, to 22.33 million tonnes, with container handling set to grow by 1%, to 1.55 million TEUs.
“Continued investment in infrastructure will help Thailand’s ports continue to increase their annual throughput over the coming years,” according to the report.
This investment is not only at the ports themselves, but also the connecting land-based intermodal connections. A new double-track railway construction project connecting Thailand with Laos and China is scheduled to begin in September 2015. The 734-kilometer rail track will connect the Thai container port of Laem Chabang with Nong Khai in Laos and further connect Kunming in the Chinese province of Yunnan. The first phase of the railway link connecting Laem Chabang and Nong Khai will be completed within two and a half years and will be worth around US$12.2 billion.
Photo: Paul_the_Seeker
