Asia’s developing economies are seen to grow 6 percent in 2013 and 6.2 percent in 2014, the group’s steady growth boosted by its resilience and the improving performance by developed economies, according to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.
The forecasts are contained in the “Asian Development Outlook Supplement” released December 11, and are unchanged from the “Asian Development Outlook Update” issued in October this year.
The generally positive outlook arises from an improving growth forecast for Japan and the United States as well as a stronger than expected performance in China.
“Despite uncertainties in the global economic environment, developing Asian economies remain resilient. The region has performed well in 2013 and is now poised to benefit from the further signs of growth momentum in the advanced economies,” said ADB chief economist Changyong Rhee.
Advanced economies of the U.S., euro area, and Japan are on track to meet ADB’s October predictions of 0.9 percent growth in 2013 and 1.9 percent in 2014. Meanwhile, China is seen to expand to 7.7 percent in 2013 and 7.5 percent in 2014 on the back of rising infrastructure investment.
By subregion, East Asian developing economies, projected to reflect off China’s expansion, are forecast to grow by 6.7 percent for both 2013 and 2014.
South Asia is on track to meet growth expectations of 4.7 percent in 2013 and 5.5 percent in 2014, benefiting from the apparent recovery of India’s economy on the back of a rebound in exports and higher industrial and agricultural outputs.
India is expected to grow at 4.7 percent in fiscal year 2013 (ending 31 March 2014) and 5.7 percent in fiscal year 2014.
Southeast Asia is expected to post growth of 4.8 percent in 2013 and 5.2 percent in 2014, both forecasts a downward revision by 0.1 percentage points from earlier estimates.
“The moderation stems from the impact of tensions in Thailand on consumption and tourism. The devastating impact of Typhoon Haiyan is tempering the Philippines’ 2013 growth, but reconstruction is expected to boost growth as it ramps up in 2014,” the report said.
Growth in Central Asia is gradually recovering, lifting expectations to 5.7 percent from 5.4 percent for 2013 and to 6.1 percent from 6 percent for 2014. The revisions reflect stronger performance in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
Pacific economies are expected to slow from 7.1 percent growth in 2012 to 5 percent in 2013 before bouncing back to 5.4 percent in 2014. Weak international commodity prices have been affecting the export earnings of some of the larger Pacific economies such as Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands.
Photo from ADB