Demand for new airplanes over the next 20 years is expected to rise to 36,770, an increase of 4.2 percent from last year’s forecast, according to Boeing’s newly released annual current market outlook (CMO).
The new set of aircraft is estimated to have a total value of US$5.2 trillion.
“This market is strong and resilient,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “With new and more efficient airplanes entering service, the growth in air travel is being driven by customers who want to fly where they want, when they want.”
Fueling this year’s forecast is the single-aisle market, which is projected to be the fastest growing and most dynamic segment due to the continued emergence of low-cost carriers. Some 25,680 new airplanes will be needed in this segment, making up 70 percent of the total units in the forecast.
“Based on the overwhelming amount of orders and deliveries, we see the heart of the single-aisle market in the 160-seat range,” said Tinseth. “There’s no question the market is converging to this size, where network flexibility and cost efficiency meet. The Next-Generation 737-800 and new 737 MAX 8 offer our customers the most revenue potential in this mid-sized space.”
Boeing forecasts that 8,600 new airplanes will be needed in the twin-aisle segment, led by small widebody airplanes in the 200 to 300 seat range such as the 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner. This year’s forecast reflects a continued shift in demand from very large airplanes to efficient new twin-engine products such as the 787-10 and new 777X.
The Asia-Pacific market, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries over the next two decades.
Tinseth said freighter demand from 2014 to 2033 will see orders for a total of 2,170 airplanes, of which 840 are new, valued at $240 billion, and 1,330 are conversions.
New future freighter deliveries, he added, will be led by demand for large widebodies, with 590 deliveries worth $190 billion. The rest will consist of medium widebodies valued at $50 billion.
“Our long-term forecast incorporates the effects of market forces on the development of the aviation industry,” Boeing said. “Economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), is a primary contributor to aviation industry growth. GDP is forecast to rise 3.2 percent over the next 20 years, which will drive passenger traffic to grow 5.0 percent annually and cargo traffic (which also depends on global trade) to grow 4.7 percent annually.”
Boeing’s CMO is the longest-running jet forecast and regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry.
