Airfreight volumes continue to show solid gains in 2014 compared to a year ago, and brighter expectations for the global economy are seen to fuel higher demand for air cargo services next year, according to a new analysis from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The IATA Cargo e-Chartbook for the fourth quarter of 2014 said air cargo volumes remain above year-ago levels, supported by cyclical improvements in economic growth.
“The global economic outlook for 2015 is for stronger growth than what is expected for 2014 overall, with notable improvements being anticipated in the US, Latin America and the Middle East/North Africa,” it said.
Traffic volumes are up 4% to 5% from a year ago, supported by solid growth in trade in some regions. Demand boost is being generated by emerging Asia trade, where volumes have seen continued increase over the past six months and by the U.S., where “optimism about the economic outlook is the highest it has been since the recession.” These developments have supported growth in demand for airfreighted commodities like semiconductors, the report added.
However, downside risks include weakened Europe consumer confidence and trade activity due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. (Nonetheless, the Euro zone recovery is seen to continue, as the region is also expected to see some improvement in 2015 compared to 2014.)
“Moreover, there has been no increase in global business confidence for the past several months, which casts doubts over the strength of the global economic upturn and prospects for continued trade growth,” the report further stated.
Further growth could also be dampened by trends in production which continue to suggest a shift toward domestic activity.
As for yields, these continue to decline slowly despite notable reductions in jet fuel prices since mid-2014 which should help reduce airline costs. Airfreight rates are stable but show no improvement on a year ago. Sea freight rates are also flat on a year ago, despite strong growth in container shipping in most regions.
Looking ahead, aircraft deliveries are set to increase by 6% in 2015 compared to 2014, which could place downward pressure on aircraft utilization.
“Yields could weaken further as new aircraft deliveries come into service in 2015. Cargo heads surveyed in October do not expect to see any improvement in yields during the year ahead, but they do anticipate continued growth in demand,” IATA said.
Photo: Fae
